The question is how long this can continue. Greece has no money. Revenue collections are falling short, and one suspects Gresham's Law may begin operating. One doesn't turn over precious euros to the Greek government if an exit is looming; one hoards them, bringing forward the day when an alternative scrip begins circulating. The mere prospect of bad money may drive out good money. Meanwhile, the flow of euros into depositors' hands ultimately originates at the European Central Bank, and the ECB is no doubt very nervous about continuing to supply them for fear of huge, open-ended exposure to a Greece that is potentially on its way out. The ECB may already be rationing euros to Greece. If that continues or scales up, we are then talking about effective capital controls—the ATMs no longer dispense euro notes—and more pressure for the introduction of alternative scrip in Greece. Exit, in other words, becomes a fait accompli.
This blog exists purely as a place for me to dump random links and thoughts I have rather than emailing them to my friends. It'll have large amounts of inside jokes. Also there will probably be times when I write "you" or refer to an email. Just pretend that you are reading an email to you. If you don't know me you likely won't find anything here interesting. If you do know me you also will not find anything here interesting.
Thursday, May 17, 2012
With euros leaving Greece, Greece may need to leave the euro
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2012/05/euro-crisis-4
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